I’ve noticed that weather seems to have a big influence on how NFL games are played, and I keep hearing it also changes the betting spreads. Rain, snow, and even strong winds all make offenses play differently. I get that a wet ball leads to more fumbles, and snow might give an edge to quicker offensive players, but I don’t fully understand how sportsbooks adjust for these factors. Do they automatically shrink the spreads in bad weather, or do they analyze each matchup separately before making changes?
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What’s fascinating is how unpredictable weather games can be compared to clear conditions. A heavy rainstorm can completely change a coach’s game plan, forcing more runs and fewer passes. Strong winds can even make kicking field goals unreliable, which lowers expected scoring. On the other hand, snow sometimes produces high-scoring chaos because defenses can’t react fast enough. That’s why bettors who understand how different weather affects the flow of a game often have an edge, while casual fans just see it as “bad conditions” without realizing the betting implications.